Are you ready to play? The European Commission has unveiled its defense plan – the White Paper with ‘2030 horizon’ on one side, and ReArm Europe on the other – and for the first time, the 27 can discuss it in a cohesive manner with all cards on the table. However, the initial positions are diverse, sometimes even divergent. This is why the negotiation – beyond the formal conclusions of the summit – is set to intensify starting today. The executive, as seen in the halls of Justus Lipsius, is capturing the “current situation.” But now, leaders must make practical choices – and this is usually when real problems arise in the EU.
Let’s start with what unites. In the draft conclusions, the 27 – including Hungary under Viktor Orban – urge to “accelerate work on all fronts to significantly increase Europe’s defense readiness in the next five years.” These are clear words compared to the usual standards. Leaders also call on “the Council and co-legislators to swiftly advance work on recent Commission proposals” and to “urgently initiate implementation of actions identified” in the previous March 6 summit in the field of main military sectors of interest and to “continue on the respective financing options.” This formulation is broad enough to allow capitals to navigate through without stumbling at the first dance. “There is no in-depth discussion planned on the Commission’s proposals,” explains a European source.
The roadmap aims to conclude at the European Council in June, scheduled immediately after the NATO summit in the Netherlands, where allies will be called upon to increase spending targets – at least to 3% – under the energetic push from Donald Trump. However, three months is a significant timeframe, and some steps outlined in ReArm Europe (such as activating exemptions from the Stability Pact on security spending) should happen much earlier. “We are aware that there are expectations now, after a series of meetings, and they must be managed because we cannot come up with a new formula every time,” confides a diplomat. The reality is that there is currently no clear list of who will definitely activate the clause and who won’t, just hints (Germany definitely, the Netherlands maybe not, high-debt countries like Italy and France are on the fence).
Another contentious issue is the ‘buy European’ rule, strongly supported by France to boost the European industry. Here too, positions are varied, with some advocating for a more open value chain that may even include the US, after accessing the €150 billion fund – named Safe – designed to encourage joint procurement, especially for major collective interest projects like air defense, long-range missiles, cargo aircraft, cyber, or space. In the broader context, the topic of financing is hotly debated, with a showdown between those in favor of Eurobonds and those against. While there is no mention of common debt in the defense plan presented to leaders by Ursula von der Leyen, it is emphasized that it is just “a first step.”
“Countries that have resisted for decades have completely changed their position, and there is now a very broad consensus in the EU Parliament, which will also be tested on defense spending: nothing is off the table,” said the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, referring to Eurobonds. “These are decisive days for Europe,” echoed von der Leyen.
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