The Future of Ukraine Without US Military Aid
What will happen now that Donald Trump has cut off military aid to Ukraine? When Volodymyr Zelensky was faced with this possibility in early February, he responded, “We would really have little hope of survival without the support of the United States.” A few weeks ago, Ukrainian Army Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko went even further: “Without American military aid, we will last six months.” He then added, anticipating the next question, “Europe cannot replace American aid.”
The Clash Between Trump and Zelensky
After the dramatic clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office last week, which continued over the past few days with tweets and heated statements, the American president seems to want to “force Zelensky to accept a ceasefire on US-dictated terms or condemn the country to greater losses on the battlefield,” writes the New York Times.
This is not the only pressure tool at the disposal of the Republican leader. For now, the US has not suspended either crucial intelligence assistance to Kiev or the training of selected units of Ukrainian troops. But they could.
Following Trump’s announcement of a halt to American military supplies, Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of the Defense Commission of the Verkhovna Rada, declared, “Now we have a margin of about six months to make up for the supply of weapons from the United States and find alternatives.”
Kiev Has Received 267 Billion in Aid
Since the start of the war in December 2024, according to the Kiel Institute, Ukraine has received a total of 267 billion euros in aid from donor countries. Of these, military assistance amounts to 130 billion, financial assistance to 118 billion, and humanitarian assistance to 19 billion.
If in the early months of the war, over 90% of military aid came from weapons available in the arsenals of various donor countries, since 2023, over 60% comes from weapons produced with new orders. But while the American industry is ready to increase production, as noted by Corriere, “European industries are only now gearing up to increase production rates.”
Supporting Ukraine Without the United States
The United States has donated 119 billion to Ukraine, 64 billion of which in military aid, 49% of the total. This means that to maintain the same level of military support without the US, other countries would have to donate twice as much as they have done so far. Italy, for example, would need to spend an additional 500 million euros per year. The UK, 3.3 billion more.
Even though Ukraine currently produces around 30% of its military needs, while another 30% comes from Europe and the remaining 40% from the United States, the problem, as noted in a report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), is that not all American aid can be replaced by Europeans or Ukrainian domestic production.
Air Defense, Missiles, and Ammunition
As noted by Corriere, Europe does not produce “spare parts and ammunition for the Bradley tanks, essential support vehicles for the infantry. Other weapons unavailable in the EU are the Himars and Atacms missiles. US war industries produce shells for standard NATO 155-millimeter artillery: the Ukrainians ask for over a million and a half per year.” While the US has provided over 4.5 million munitions so far, the EU managed to deliver just under a million last year, months behind schedule, and many wonder how it could fulfill the promise to deliver 2 million to Kiev this year.
According to Colonel Bohdan Krotevych, “the main challenge is air defense, which depends on the United States. We urgently need to find an alternative because if we run out of missiles, our civilians will die.”
Currently, only American Patriots are capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles, such as hypersonic Kinzhal missiles.
Zelensky: “We Are Ready to Negotiate”
Ukraine has reacted to Trump’s announcement with anger and dismay. “Betrayal” is the term used in interviews by Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament. However, Kiev is aware that it cannot do without the US and has not given up on patching things up with Washington. Prime Minister Denys Shmygal stated that Kiev “is ready to sign the rare earth agreement with the US at any time.”
I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace.
None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 4, 2025
Zelensky, on his part, wrote on social media that “our meeting in Washington at the White House on Friday did not go as it should have. It’s a shame it went that way. It’s time to fix things. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.” He then added, “We greatly appreciate what America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. We are ready to work quickly to end the war, and the first steps could be the release of prisoners and a ceasefire in the sky banning missiles, long-range drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure, and an immediate ceasefire at sea, if Russia does the same.”
Without the US, “Ukrainian Defense Breaks”
According to CSIS, without American support, “what Ukraine receives from Europeans and other countries in the world and what it produces internally will allow its forces to continue fighting but with a potential in continuous decline. The Russians will gain more and more territory, and at some point, Ukrainian lines will break.”
At that point, CSIS continues, “Ukraine will have to accept an unfavorable, if not draconian, peace. It is tragic that Ukrainians find themselves at this point after three years of sacrifices and heroic resistance.”
