Moscow (AsiaNews) – With the approach of the new year and the inauguration of Donald Trump’s presidency in the United States, there is increasing talk of the end of the Russian war in Ukraine, although concrete prospects for peace negotiations have not yet emerged. Just yesterday, Trump revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin had requested a meeting with him as soon as possible, although it is unclear whether the meeting will take place. One of the most prominent Ukrainian commentators, Radio Svoboda editorialist Vitalij Portnikov, has attempted to summarize the elements that could support the long-awaited turning point.
One of the most repeated arguments concerns the new US president’s ability to influence his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, although not much is said about the pressure points that should allow Trump to convince Putin to stop. It is evident to all that if the Ukrainians were to stop defending themselves, it would be the end of Ukraine as an independent state, while Russia’s withdrawal would allow the existence of the two opposing states, something Putin is not willing to concede.
Portnikov therefore wonders “what could be the necessary conditions to convince the Russian president to at least freeze the conflict, if not to sign a comprehensive peace agreement,” essentially pointing out two possibilities. The first concerns the uncertain conditions of the Russian economy and the danger of internal social unrest, which could suggest at least a pause in military operations to restore necessary resources, accumulating new forces to resume the war in a later phase.
The second possibility, also linked to pessimistic forecasts about the economy and the uncertain chances of victory on the battlefield, would be for Putin to politically subjugate Ukraine as at least a satellite state of Russia, avoiding wasting all resources in vain. The fact is that it is not easy to assess Russia’s economic conditions, and experts are divided into various hypotheses, largely related to the continuation or postponement of military expenditures and actions, to predictable or indefinite periods.
As the political scientist observes, “for us, the important thing is not so much the state of the economy, but what Putin thinks of the state of the economy.” That Moscow intends to continue with its usual methods, also deploying new technologies, is indisputable, and the return of former Deputy Prime Minister Yuriy Boyko, leader of the pro-Russian opposition party in Ukraine, Opzž (banned by law), to the scene, who has spread new versions of the narrative on the “violation of the rights of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine” by unspecified “radical forces” on TikTok, does not appear coincidental. Boyko intervened the day after the unexpected triumph in the first round of the presidential elections in Romania of the pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu, highlighting the hybrid and informational war strategies typical of the Kremlin.
The level of penetration into social networks is different in Ukraine compared to Romania, with more anonymous tools like Telegram preferred, but Russian propaganda still manages to influence, not only to bring broader sectors of society to its side but also by emphasizing the sense of prostration of Ukrainians after three years of war, which advises seeking peace and “coexistence” with Russia at all costs, with certain security guarantees. Portnikov comments that “after all, this is also the line that allowed pro-Russians in Georgia to impose themselves on the majority of the population,” emphasizing the threat of a
