Tomorrow, Venezuela will hold elections and the opposition to the chavista regime could emerge victorious. As explained by their most prominent leader, Maria Corina Machado, “there is an unprecedented energy for change. It is an existential and spiritual struggle. For many Venezuelans, it is the last chance to prevent their children from emigrating. There is a strong desire for family unity and a dignified life.”
María Corina Machado is not the candidate of the Democratic Unity Platform (PUD), the coalition formed by a variety of parties united in their desire to defeat chavismo. Maduro attempted to politically ban her after she won the primaries with over 92% of the votes last October. The regime thought it had eliminated its main rival, but they were mistaken.
Maduro’s Threats Before the Venezuelan Election
Maria Corina has given way to Edmundo González Urrutia, a retired diplomat and internationalist professor who will turn 75 next month. Despite being relatively unknown and lacking Machado’s charisma, chavismo accepted him as a candidate last March, believing him to be an easy opponent to defeat. However, to secure victory tomorrow, Maduro and his allies have pushed their usual electoral engineering to the limit. They have bought votes with food and bonuses, relocated polling stations at the last minute in anti-regime areas to discourage voters, prevented around 5 million eligible voters who fled abroad from participating, and have been spreading the typical dictatorial message of threatening “blood baths.”
Maduro concluded his campaign yesterday with the usual threats: “There will be an iron fist and justice against the fascists and the violent. We will not allow them to continue doing harm; their time is up,” he thundered in Caracas. He accused the opposition of planning violence to reject the election results when he “triumphs,” suggesting that the armed forces could resist an opposition victory.
The Regime’s Ongoing Control
Maduro urged Venezuelans to carefully consider their vote tomorrow. “Think about your family, your business, your trade, your company, your work: who among the 10 candidates guarantees peace and stability for Venezuela? Only me, and I am ready for a great victory, knowing that our people will do it again. They did not succeed with us, and they will never do it, and on Sunday, we will show the fascists and imperialism,” he declared, before concluding with a fierce message directed at Urritia: “On Sunday, hold the fascists and the far right accountable! We will deliver such a blow that they will never rise again and set foot in this homeland.”
Regardless of the outcome, even if the opposition were to win tomorrow (as Nicolás Maduro Guerra, the president’s son, stated to El País, “If Edmundo wins, we will be the opposition, that’s all. Of course, it will be annoying”), the chavista regime will maintain control over the Parliament, the Supreme Court of Justice, the National Electoral Council, the capital Caracas, 20 out of 23 states (equivalent to our regions), 220 out of 335 municipalities, and all military, police, and paramilitary leadership (motorcycle gangs). As Nicaraguan guerrilla commander Tomás Borge, co-founder of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), advised his ideological revolutionary allies in Venezuela and Cuba, “we may lose everything, except power, to build the dictatorship of democracy.”
Warnings from the United States to Maduro and Venezuela
The United States has warned Maduro that if he commits large-scale fraud or, worse, a “bloodbath,” they will reintroduce sanctions on oil, removed by the Biden Administration as a gesture of goodwill. This would deprive the regime of income from oil companies, with Chevron at the forefront. For a few months, the White House also lifted sanctions on Venezuelan state gold; however, they reversed this decision when Maria Corina Machado was banned. Since 2020, Maduro and his inner circle have been accused of drug trafficking in the United States.
This makes it difficult for them to move abroad, prompting some in Washington to suggest amnesty in exchange for a peaceful transfer of power. Maduro can also blackmail the Biden administration by accepting the repatriation of undocumented migrants reaching the U.S. border. This migration relief measure could be crucial for the Biden administration during an election year. However, Maduro could revoke this agreement if Washington refuses to recognize his rigged victory.
