Uncertainties, doubts, the proliferation of obstacles on alliances. And the silent temptation of a sensational twist. Ursula von der Leyen’s journey towards her second term is facing the most challenging days.
The smile of the designated Commission President remains intact in the meetings organized at the European Parliament with various groups. Her staff continues to exude calmness. However, the certainty in the Europeanist parties called to decide at the Strasbourg Plenary is not as solid.
“Not voting for her would throw the EU into instability and would be a gift to Orban,” warn from the EPP. But, within the same Popular group, there are divergences. For example, on the role of the Greens, who are pushing to have a permanent place in the majority, encountering resistance especially from the party that nominated von der Leyen. The EU executive president dedicated Wednesday’s meetings to the Liberals and indeed the Greens. Both have emphasized that an alliance with the Conservatives and Reformists is to be excluded in the most absolute manner. Von der Leyen has assured both that there will be no “structural cooperation” with the ECR. This is the formula with which the Spitzenkandidat tries to play on multiple fronts: gaining the votes of some Conservatives while trying to keep the pro-EU platform including Renew and Socialists compact. And, at the same time, also securing the yes votes of the 53 elected Greens.
The game is tough and is heading towards a crossroads: the programmatic speech that von der Leyen will have to deliver in Strasbourg. Not by chance, after three hours of meeting, the Greens highlighted “progress” but not yet the conclusion of negotiations. “We will decide on Thursday,” emphasized co-president Bas Eickhout. The order of meetings chosen by von der Leyen was significant. First, the Popular, then the Socialists. Then Renew and the Greens. Only next week – on Monday and Tuesday respectively – the designated president will meet with The Left and ECR. The meeting with The Left, at least officially, does not foreshadow any change in the group dominated by France Insoumise: The Left will not vote for Ursula and will propose its candidate as an alternative to Roberta Metsola to lead the European Parliament. However, there has been no sanitary cordon raised against the pro-EU in their regard.
“The biggest problem is the extreme right,” explain Popular sources. The cordon will exclude Patriots and the new group led by AfD. With the Conservatives, the situation is different. The EPP is convinced that with some of them – Fratelli d’Italia, the Belgians of N-VA, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s ODS – dialogue can be established on various topics. “Renew’s ultimatum on ECR is unacceptable,” thundered former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, leading one of the delegations – along with The Republicans – most skeptical about von der Leyen’s second term. Yet, Socialists and Liberals insist on minimizing the weight – and any counteroffers – that Giorgia Meloni may have. There is a certain irritation filtering through the EPP regarding the S&D’s attitude. “Greater clarity is needed,” the group’s leaders repeat these hours. With a particular reference: Elly Schlein’s PD. The Dem’s delegation has so far been among the most cautious on their positioning at the Plenary. Some of the Pd MEPs would easily do without von der Leyen’s second term. An eventual embrace with Meloni would make her inevitably hard to swallow. The negotiation is not only played out in the confrontation between the outgoing president and the groups but also in what is said afterward. The Greens, for instance, talk about a four-way alliance as the only way for a “stable, pro-EU, and pro-Ukraine majority” and have spoken of having “guarantees” on the Green Deal. Words that certainly Manfred Weber will not like. The thread on which Ursula runs remains thin. Within the EPP, they assure that there is no “plan B.” Many at the European Parliament wonder if a special European Council meeting in the middle of summer is really possible to rush to the rescue in case of a sensational rejection.
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